Edition Tue Apr 28 2026 | PSCI 111.70 +1.1% WoW | 30-DAY Forecast Median 110.24 80% CI 110.5 -- 112.0 | PSPI +0.8 (tightening) | Method PSCI v1.3 / TimesFM 2.5
// data current as of Tue May 5 2026 · 10:00 AM ET · sources refreshed weekly Tue 10 AM ET after BLS / EIA federal drops
// Market Pulse · The Tuesday Read

Market Pulse

Weekly PSCI + what moved the pallet market this week.

PSCI today
111.84
▲ +1.06% WoW
Updated May 5, 2026 / 10:00 AM ET
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May 5, 2026 Edition

Delivered every Tuesday · 10:00 AM ET

PSCI is at 111.84 this week, the highest reading in the last 4 weeks (range: 110.67 to 111.84). Diesel by PADD shows the largest deviation from January 2024 base at +46.3%. Wood Pallet PPI is the only component below its baseline at -0.6%.

// PSCI trend + AI forecast layer (80% CI)
Past 8 weeks 30-day forecast 80% confidence interval
EditionTue May 5 2026 · 10:00 AM ET
MethodologyPSCI v1.3 · PSPI v1.0
ForecastAI Forecast Layer v1.0 · TimesFM 2.5
Next EditionTue May 12 2026 · 10:00 AM ET

What moved inside PSCI -- by component, by month.

12 months of MoM percentage changes plus a +30D forecast column for each PSCI input. Past data colored by magnitude (legend above the matrix). Forecast column rendered in gold. Click a component name to swap the headline fan graph above into that component's trajectory; click an "i" indicator for context on a material move.

Series Weight Latest MoM Next release
Wood Pallet PPI (BLS) 40% 298.7 +1.1% --
Softwood Lumber PPI (BLS) 20% 285.4 -0.9% --
Diesel by PADD (EIA) 20% $3.82/gal +0.3% --
Warehouse Wages (BLS) 15% $24.16/hr +0.2% --
Paper Containers PPI (BLS) 5% 287.2 +6.2% --

Where diesel pressure sits, region by region.

EIA Weekly Retail Diesel by Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD-level breakouts). Color reflects current price level; arrows reflect AI Forecast Layer 30-day directional projection. Hover any region for the exact value. Atlas subscribers see this rolled up to their network's PADD distribution.

// EIA PADD diesel by state (Albers USA)
PADD 1 · East CoastNE / Mid-Atl / Southeast$4.10/gal↑ +1.8%
PADD 2 · MidwestIL, IN, IA, MI, OH, WI ...$3.75/gal↑ +0.5%
PADD 3 · Gulf CoastTX, LA, MS, AL, AR, NM$3.62/gal→ +0.3%
PADD 4 · Rocky MountainID, MT, WY, UT, CO$3.88/gal↑ +1.1%
PADD 5 · West CoastCA, OR, WA, NV, AZ, HI, AK$4.42/gal↑ +2.2%
// Color scale · current pump price < $5.00 $5.00 -- $5.50 $5.50 -- $6.00 > $6.00

Pallet demand pressure, current vs. last year vs. 5-year mean.

PSPI is the Pallet Solutions Pressure Index -- a forward-looking demand-pressure read with a 60-90 day lead on pallet vendor capacity. Composed from housing starts (25%), ISM Manufacturing PMI (20%), container imports (20%), industrial construction spending (15%), retail trade sales (10%), and WARN volume (10%, sign-inverted). Released the second Friday of each month.

PSPI · last 6 months · compared to 1 year ago + 5-year average
+0.8 tightening
Current PSPI (last 6 months) Same 6 months, 1 year ago 5-year average for these months (+0.15)

The dashed and dotted lines are reference comparisons -- the chart's time scale is 6 months.

+1.0 +0.5 0.0 -0.5 5y mean = +0.15 YoY +0.3 last yr +0.8 Nov '25 Dec '25 Jan '26 Feb '26 Mar '26 Apr '26
What it says: Current PSPI of +0.8 sits clearly above last year's +0.3 read at the same month, and is about 5x the 5-year mean of +0.15. Tightening is real, not seasonal. Housing starts and industrial construction spending rose YoY; ISM Manufacturing held neutral; WARN volume softened (fewer closure notices), supportive of demand. Procurement should expect vendor capacity to tighten over the next 60-90 days. Next PSPI release: Fri May 8 2026 · 10:00 AM ET (second Friday).

Procurement signals from the data.

Three procurement timing reads tied to this week's PSCI movement and the 30-day forecast. Not financial advice -- procurement-decision signals from the federal data above. Each ties back to a specific input series you can audit.

// 01

Renewing in PADD 1 (Northeast)?

The forecast supports locking ahead of likely Q2 firming. PADD 1 diesel is +1.2% YoY and the AI Forecast Layer projects another +1.8% over the next 30 days. Wood Pallet PPI is rising in tandem.

// 02

Sourcing OCC-grade or recycled-fiber pallets?

Watch Paper Containers PPI weekly. The +6.2% MoM jump this week is the largest single-component move in the series since Q4 2024. Recycled-fiber-heavy pallet costs are exposed to corrugated input pressure.

// 03

Multi-DC procurement team?

The national PSCI weights all components equally across DCs. Paste your facility ZIPs into Atlas to see the read weighted to your network's PADD distribution, then start the standing procurement record for your corridor -- a dated, federally-cited entry per Tuesday that compounds into the case for your next RFQ.

PSCI v1.3 methodology disclosure. Every published value carries this footer: methodology link, sources cited, version pinned. Reproducible by anyone using the same public-domain federal series. Forecasts via AI Forecast Layer v1.0 (TimesFM 2.5, Apache 2.0).
Read methodology →

Past Tuesday Reads.

Each edition is dated and version-pinned. Scroll back to verify past forecasts against subsequent observed data, or to cite historical PSCI levels in budget review.

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Federal data sources for this edition.

Every input value on this page traces to one of the public-domain series below. PSCI is a weighted geometric mean across the cost-input series; PSPI is a weighted arithmetic mean across the demand-side series. Copy this block for procurement audit documentation.

// PSCI inputs · cost side
Wood Pallet PPI
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Producer Price Index by Industry · Wood Pallets and Pallet Containers (NAICS 321920)
BLS PCU321920321920
Softwood Lumber PPI
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Producer Price Index by Commodity · Softwood Lumber (primary raw material proxy)
BLS WPU0811
Diesel by PADD
U.S. Energy Information Administration · Weekly Retail Diesel Prices · Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (1A/1B/1C/2/3/4/5)
EIA EPD2D EIA PADD breakouts
Warehouse Worker Earnings
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Current Employment Statistics · Warehousing and Storage average hourly earnings (NAICS 4934 / 4938)
BLS CES4349300008 BLS Employment Situation
Paper Containers PPI
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Producer Price Index by Commodity · Paperboard Containers and Boxes (OCC-grade proxy)
BLS WPU09150301 BLS PPI home
// PSPI inputs · demand side
Housing Starts
U.S. Census Bureau · New Residential Construction · New privately-owned housing units started, monthly
Census NRC
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Institute for Supply Management · Manufacturing Report on Business · headline composite Purchasing Managers' Index
ISM ROB
Container Imports
U.S. Census Bureau · FT900 U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services · containerized goods imports
Census FT900
Industrial Construction Spending
U.S. Census Bureau · Construction Spending C30 series · manufacturing-construction-put-in-place
Census C30
Retail Trade Sales
U.S. Census Bureau · Monthly Retail Trade Survey · total retail and food services sales
Census MRTS
WARN Act Notices (sign-inverted)
U.S. Department of Labor · Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act notices, aggregated by state DOL feeds, NAICS-filtered to manufacturing 31-33
DOL WARN
Forecast layer. 30-day projections come from the AI Forecast Layer v1.0, which applies TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache 2.0) to each underlying federal series and re-aggregates via published PSCI weights. The model is unmodified; checkpoints are pinned. Reproducible from federal data + the pinned model. Methodology and weight schema: PSCI v1.3 / PSPI v1.0 methodology.