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PSCI™ this week

113.07 ↑ +2.00% WoW

• The largest weekly move of the year, and the first week in months where four of the five inputs changed.
• Diesel led again, harder: EIA week-ending July 20 US retail diesel at $5.134/gal, up 7.1% from $4.796 - a second straight sharp climb.
• June producer prices landed: wood pallet PPI rose 1.6% to 191.854 and paper/OCC rose 2.3% to 375.493, while softwood lumber eased 0.6% to 282.733.
• Warehouse earnings carried forward at the May print ($25.92, CES4349300008) - BLS has not yet posted June for this series, disclosed under methodology Section 13 and well inside the 30% weight limit.
• The 30-day projection reads 112.66 (80% CI 108.45-115.23), below the current print - the model treats part of this week’s diesel spike as mean-reverting rather than a new level.

Components this week